Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. Three independent candidates - Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) - are classified as Democrats. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 20 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Senate elections held between 20, including special elections. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model.
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I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives.
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In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. What the last decade’s Senate results tell us about 2022
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But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.